Transformation and strategic growth: path to economic complexity and recovery in Lebanon

ESCWA Publication: E/ESCWA/CL3.SEP/2023/TP.1

Country: Lebanese Republic

Publication Type: Information material

Cluster: Shared Economic Prosperity

Focus Area: Debt and fiscal policy, Future of employment, Macroeconomics

Initiatives: Trade & industry statistics, Financial & macroeconomic statistics for National accounts, Public finance and inclusive fiscal policy

SDGs: Goal 1: No Poverty, Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth, Goal 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure, Goal 12: Responsible Production and Consumption

Keywords: Economic policy, Economic analysis, Economy measures, Economic conditions, Strategic materials, Job vacancies, Lebanon situation, Employment, Poverty, Trade, Climate, Consumption, Production, Debt, Investment analysis, Future studies, Technical cooperation, Imports, Exports, Economic growth, Employment creation

Transformation and strategic growth: path to economic complexity and recovery in Lebanon

March 2023

This paper analyses the economic performance of Lebanon since 2000; it assesses the key economic policies that have impeded the diversification and transformation of the Lebanese economy. It proposes an export-led strategy with the required policies for economic diversification. The findings are based on an inclusive quantitative tool that allows using the product space maps, and on a distillation of key international experiences with economic transformation strategies.

The paper identifies 50 products at the HS4 level in various sectors as focus areas of any future transformation strategy, and 29 additional products with the highest potential for driving growth in the country. Growth in these sectors can boost exports and support the creation of employment opportunities.

By implementing the suggested strategic options with current know-how, Lebanon could generate an estimated average additional gross domestic product growth rate of 1.2 percentage points per year over a period of 10 years.

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