ESCWA Publication: E/ESCWA/CL1.CCS/2026/RICCAR/Technical report.19
Country: Arab region
Publication Type: Reports & studies
Cluster: Climate Change and Natural Resource Sustainability
Focus Area: Climate change, Natural resource sustainability
Initiatives: RICCAR, Climate Resilience through Regional Cooperation, Arab Centre for Climate Change Policies, AWARENET
SDGs: Goal 2: Zero Hunger, Goal 6: Clean Water and Sanitation, Goal 7: Affordable and Clean Energy, Goal 13: Climate Action
Keywords: Arab countries, Climate change, Precipitation, Runoff, Simulation methods, Soil moisture, Temperature, Weather forecasting
Future climate projections for the Mashreq region under the intermediate and high emissions scenarios
October 2026
The present technical report, prepared under the Regional Initiative for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR), presents regional climate modelling and analysis done to produce high-resolution climate projections over the Mashreq region. Led by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in collaboration with ESCWA, the report summarizes the outcomes derived from an ensemble of regional climate simulations produced at a 10 km resolution, based on the downscaling of six CMIP6 global climate models under two scenarios: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.
The Mashreq Domain ensemble spans the period 1961–2070, with an emphasis on near-term (2021–2040) and mid-term (2041–2060) conditions, analysed against a 1995–2014 reference period. Temperature and precipitation outputs, and related extreme indices, are presented using bias-adjusted datasets to support climate impact studies related to the water and agricultural sectors.
Related content
Climate change, Natural resource sustainability
The present technical report, prepared under the Regional Initiative for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR), presents regional climate modelling and analysis done to produce high-resolution climate projections over the Mashreq region. Led by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in collaboration with ESCWA, the report summarizes the outcomes derived from an ensemble of regional climate simulations produced at a 10 km resolution, based on the downscaling of six CMIP6 global climate models under two scenarios: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.
The Mashreq Domain ensemble spans the period 1961–2070, with an emphasis on near-term (2021–2040) and mid-term (2041–2060) conditions, analysed against a 1995–2014 reference period. Temperature and precipitation outputs, and related extreme indices, are presented using bias-adjusted datasets to support climate impact studies related to the water and agricultural sectors.
