Nowcasting in the Arab region

Timely data on key economic indicators are essential for informed policy debate, particularly when official statistics are delayed, frequently revised or subject to volatility, or when policymakers need real-time information. For instance, preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) estimates often become available only after several weeks or months.

Nowcasting, broadly defined as the use of high-frequency data to predict the present or near future, has become an essential tool for economic surveillance. Once a research frontier, it is now widely used by central banks and international organizations to provide a timely picture of economic conditions. 

In the Arab region, limited macroeconomic data and long publication lags, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected economies, can constrain economic analyses. Nowcasting helps bridge this gap by supporting more evidence-based, responsive policymaking.

Our approach

ESCWA has launched a pilot study to nowcast real GDP in three Arab countries with different economic structures, statistical capacities and data availability. These countries are Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Syrian Arab Republic. The work is intended to expand gradually to all Arab countries and to additional macroeconomic indicators. 

The approach relies on theory-based, high-frequency indicators covering sufficiently long periods of time, feeding them into various machine learning models to generate nowcasts. It combines conventional and alternative data sources to overcome the severe data limitations affecting some Arab countries.

Our partners

ESCWA member States

Our activities

Tailored nowcasting models are built and maintained for each Arab country and target variable, reflecting differences in macroeconomic drivers, economic structures, data availability, data gaps and reporting lags. 

Summary outcomes are reported in the Macroeconomic Outlook in the Arab Region, 2025.