Assessing the Impact of the Conflict on the Syrian Economy and Looking Beyond - ESCWA

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Assessing the Impact of the Conflict on the Syrian Economy and Looking Beyond cover

ESCWA Publication: E/ESCWA/EDGD/2014/WP.2


Publication Type: Working papers

Cluster: Shared Economic Prosperity

Focus Area: Financing for development, Macroeconomics

Initiatives: National Agenda for the Future of Syria Programme

Keywords: Conflict, Fiscal policy, Gross domestic product, Post-conflict reconstruction, Public investment, Syrian arab republic, Unemployment

Assessing the Impact of the Conflict on the Syrian Economy and Looking Beyond

January 2014

The report adopts the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for simulation. The first section outlines a baseline scenario. The second section provides an assessment of the impact of early years of conflict (2011-2013) on specific economic sectors. The third section tackles the impact of two additional years of conflict on growth, unemployment, production sectors, and the fiscal situation. The final section suggests the public investment programme required to restore the pre-crisis Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and explore its fiscal and macroeconomic implications.

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