Future climate projections for the Mashreq region: summary outcomes - United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia

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Future climate projections for the Mashreq region: summary outcomes

ESCWA Publication: E/ESCWA/CL1.CCS/2021/RICCAR/TECHNICAL REPORT.7/REV.1


Country: Arab region, Republic of Iraq, Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, Lebanese Republic, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Republic of Yemen

Publication Type: Reports & studies

Cluster: Climate Change and Natural Resource Sustainability

Focus Area: Climate change, Natural resource sustainability

Initiatives: RICCAR, Arab Centre for Climate Change Policies, Advancing water and food security

SDGs: Goal 6: Clean Water and Sanitation, Goal 13: Climate Action

Keywords: Climate change, Weather forecasting, Climate change adaptation, Precipitation, Runoff, Soil moisture, Atmospheric temperature, River basins, Statistical data, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Saudi arabia

Future climate projections for the Mashreq region: summary outcomes

September 2022

This technical report conducted under the Regional Initiative for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR) was made available on the RICCAR Knowledge Hub (RKH) with the support of the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA). An ensemble of six regional climate projections for the Mashreq Domain was generated by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) using HCLIM ALADIN for SSP5-8.5. The indings show that temperature is increasing across the Mashreq region by an average of 1.9 oC, which is similar to the magnitude of temperature change projected from the RICCAR Arab Domain ensemble for RCP 8.5. Precipitation results show more variability with considerable spread between projections in some areas. From the projected changes in runoff, seasonal increases can be seen even where annual flows are shown to decrease.

The results prepared in this technical report provide only an overview of climate change trends from the Mashreq Domain for a few selected areas and a few selected indices. Primary output variables from the modelled climate projections are available via the RICCAR RKH for further analysis.

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