ESCWA Publication: E/ESCWA/CL3.SEP/2025/Technical note.1
Country: Republic of Tunisia
Publication Type: Information material
Cluster: Shared Economic Prosperity
Focus Area: Debt and fiscal policy, Macroeconomics
Initiatives: Public finance and inclusive fiscal policy, Social Expenditure Monitor for Arab States, Debt Optimization to Enhance Fiscal Space
SDGs: Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
Keywords: Debt management, Econometric models, Economic forecasts, Economic policy, Fiscal policy, Government spending policy, Macroeconomics, National budgets, Public debt, Public expenditures, Simulation methods, Social policy, Technical cooperation, Tunisia
Enhancing fiscal space and sustainability for Tunisia: insights from the Macro-Fiscal Modelling and Forecasting tool
January 2026
This technical note presents key findings from the Macro-Fiscal Modelling and Forecasting (MFMF) tool applied to Tunisia. It analyses three policy-relevant scenarios – debt stabilization, improved fiscal space and social investment – to demonstrate the model’s features and capabilities for macro-fiscal policy assessment.
The analysis indicates that debt stabilization, combined with improvements in fiscal efficiency and social investments, generates sustained gains in economic output and private consumption compared to a business-as-usual scenario. It also shows that such a policy mix can expand fiscal space and support higher government expenditures relative to the baseline scenario, contributing to improved fiscal sustainability, gross domestic product growth, and the overall well-being of the population in line with Tunisia’s national priorities.
Related content
Debt and fiscal policy, Macroeconomics
This technical note presents key findings from the Macro-Fiscal Modelling and Forecasting (MFMF) tool applied to Tunisia. It analyses three policy-relevant scenarios – debt stabilization, improved fiscal space and social investment – to demonstrate the model’s features and capabilities for macro-fiscal policy assessment.
The analysis indicates that debt stabilization, combined with improvements in fiscal efficiency and social investments, generates sustained gains in economic output and private consumption compared to a business-as-usual scenario. It also shows that such a policy mix can expand fiscal space and support higher government expenditures relative to the baseline scenario, contributing to improved fiscal sustainability, gross domestic product growth, and the overall well-being of the population in line with Tunisia’s national priorities.
